The term Bradley effect, less commonly called[1] the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[2][3][4] Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.[5]
One theory for the Bradley effect is that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will appear to the pollster to be racially prejudiced. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may be a factor into voters' answers. Some pollsters believe that they do not receive deliberately false answers from white voters. The Bradley effect, these pollsters believe, is caused by pollsters' failure to account for general political leanings among voters who are undecided between Democrats and Republicans.
from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effectThis term has surfaced in several news reports and blogs I have read lately. I will admit I was not clear on its definition so I needed to look it up. And that's one to grow on!
But seriously, I do not doubt the effect, and (sadly) it may well rear its ugly head in this election. This should also be a reminder that racism, even that little bit where people say to themselves "I don't hate (insert appropriate minority) but I just am not comfortable with one in the (insert appropriate office)" is alive and well in the land of equal opportunity. One might tell themselves that that is not racism, but rest assured it is. Racism isn't necessarily about hate or animosity, it is about prejudice broadly writ (see Mirriam-Webster, definition 2 if you want a cite). Prejudicing based on race is racism, even if one hates to admit it. And given that in most polls in swing states less than 35% of white men support the black candidate, some amount of racism is almost certainly afoot. Which makes me wonder if women are just less deposed towards racism. Maybe they just better know what prejudice feels like.
