Israel warns of Gaza 'holocaust'

Israeli leaders are warning of an imminent conflagration in Gaza after Palestinian militants aimed rockets at the southern city of Ashkelon.

The deputy defence minister said the stepped-up rocket fire would trigger what he called a "bigger holocaust" in the Hamas-controlled coastal strip.

Israeli air strikes have killed about 30 Palestinians, including six children in the past two days.

Israel has activated its early warning system in Ashkelon for the first time.

One rocket hit a block of flats in the city of 120,000 inhabitants about 10km (six miles) north of the Gaza Strip breaking through the roof and slicing through three floors below.

ISRAEL-HAMAS ATTACKS Friday: Israeli city Ashkelon activates warning system after Palestinian rocket hits Israeli air raids continue, with four wounded in Jabaliya Thursday: Four children killed near Jabaliya refugee camp Hamas militant killed near Shati refugee camp Hamas militant killed near Beit Hanoun Three Hamas militants and two from PRC group killed in Gaza City Wednesday: Six-month-old boy killed near interior ministry Five Hamas militants near Khan Younis Islamic Jihad militant near Bureij refugee camp Israeli civilian killed in Sderot

No-one was injured, but another rocket landed near a school, wounding a 17-year-old girl.

"The more [rocket] fire intensifies and the rockets reach a longer range, they (the Palestinians) will bring upon themselves a bigger holocaust because we will use all our might to defend ourselves," Matan Vilnai told Israeli army radio.

Correspondents say the "holocaust" is a term rarely used in Israel outside discussions of the Nazi genocide during World War II.

Separately, the chairman of the parliamentary defense and foreign affairs committee said Israel troops must topple the Hamas movement in Gaza and take over areas used to fire rockets.

"The state of Israel must make a strategic decision to order the army to prepare quickly," Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel Radio.

Code red

Israeli aircraft launched at least three raids on Gaza overnight. In one attack in the Jabaliya area at least four people were wounded including two children.

One Israeli civilian was killed in rocket fire on Wednesday. Of the Palestinian fatalities, about half have been civilians, including at least six children.

Hamas has called on Palestinians and Arabs to hold protests after Friday prayers against Israel's raids on Gaza.

Israeli security officials said that the rockets fired at Ashkelon have been Grad-type imports made in Iran with a range of about 22km.

It is the first time Israel has ordered Code Red sirens to be sounded in Ashkelon as well as Sderot, the town almost abutting Gaza territory where the civilian was killed.

Reports say dozens of soldiers in orange berets from the Israeli military's Home Front Command have been hanging posters around the city instructing residents on what to do when the warning sounds.

"It's a city with large facilities - a huge soccer stadium, and a basketball stadium, and a beach. No-one is ready for this," Ashkelon mayor Roni Mehatzri told Israel Radio.

Israel's leadership has been under pressure in some quarters to launch a ground invasion of Gaza to end the rocket fire. However, a recent opinion poll also indicated a majority of Israel's favour a negotiated truce with Hamas.

Hamas has been shunned by the West for refusing to recognise Israel's legitimacy, it beat the Fatah faction in a parliamentary election two years ago.

Hamas says it will cease fire if Israel stops military operations in Palestinian areas. It is also demanding an end to the Israeli-led blockade of Gaza that has cut supplies to its 1.5m inhabitants.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/7270650.stm

A Holocaust? Seriously? Uhg....Disgusting. I understand the desire for Israel to defend itself, but this is ridiculous...though par for the conflict. Look at the numbers: Palestinian rocket attacks kill 1 Israeli (a child), Israeli reprisals kill 30 Palestinians (including 6 children). Many of the Palestinians killed were militants (although this term is pretty ambiguous), but every time there is an Israeli counter strike numerous times more Palestinians are killed. And now some in the Israeli government are warning of a Holocaust in Gaza? What the fuck!? Irony?

Democratic Debate on 2-26-07

Just in case some one wants to watch last night's Democratic debate, here it is in the entirety:

Turkey in radical revision of Islamic texts

By Robert Piggott
Religious affairs correspondent, BBC News

Turkey is preparing to publish a document that represents a revolutionary reinterpretation of Islam - and a controversial and radical modernisation of the religion.

The country's powerful Department of Religious Affairs has commissioned a team of theologians at Ankara University to carry out a fundamental revision of the Hadith, the second most sacred text in Islam after the Koran.

The Hadith is a collection of thousands of sayings reputed to come from the Prophet Muhammad.

As such, it is the principal guide for Muslims in interpreting the Koran and the source of the vast majority of Islamic law, or Sharia.

This is kind of akin to the Christian Reformation. Not exactly the same, but... it's changing the theological foundations of [the] religion Fadi Hakura, Turkey expert, Chatham House

But the Turkish state has come to see the Hadith as having an often negative influence on a society it is in a hurry to modernise, and believes it responsible for obscuring the original values of Islam.

It says that a significant number of the sayings were never uttered by Muhammad, and even some that were need now to be reinterpreted.

'Reformation'

Commentators say the very theology of Islam is being reinterpreted in order to effect a radical renewal of the religion.

Its supporters say the spirit of logic and reason inherent in Islam at its foundation 1,400 years ago are being rediscovered. Some believe it could represent the beginning of a reformation in the religion.

Some messages ban women from travelling without their husband's permission... But this isn't a religious ban. It came about because it simply wasn't safe for a woman to travel alone Prof Mehmet Gormez, Hadith expert, Department of Religious Affairs

Turkish officials have been reticent about the revision of the Hadith until now, aware of the controversy it is likely to cause among traditionalist Muslims, but they have spoken to the BBC about the project, and their ambitious aims for it.

The forensic examination of the Hadiths has taken place in Ankara University's School of Theology.

An adviser to the project, Felix Koerner, says some of the sayings - also known individually as "hadiths" - can be shown to have been invented hundreds of years after the Prophet Muhammad died, to serve the purposes of contemporary society.

"Unfortunately you can even justify through alleged hadiths, the Muslim - or pseudo-Muslim - practice of female genital mutilation," he says.

"You can find messages which say 'that is what the Prophet ordered us to do'. But you can show historically how they came into being, as influences from other cultures, that were then projected onto Islamic tradition."

The argument is that Islamic tradition has been gradually hijacked by various - often conservative - cultures, seeking to use the religion for various forms of social control.

Leaders of the Hadith project say successive generations have embellished the text, attributing their political aims to the Prophet Muhammad himself.

Revolutionary

Turkey is intent on sweeping away that "cultural baggage" and returning to a form of Islam it claims accords with its original values and those of the Prophet.

But this is where the revolutionary nature of the work becomes apparent. Even some sayings accepted as being genuinely spoken by Muhammad have been altered and reinterpreted.

Prof Mehmet Gormez, a senior official in the Department of Religious Affairs and an expert on the Hadith, gives a telling example.

"There are some messages that ban women from travelling for three days or more without their husband's permission and they are genuine.

"But this isn't a religious ban. It came about because in the Prophet's time it simply wasn't safe for a woman to travel alone like that. But as time has passed, people have made permanent what was only supposed to be a temporary ban for safety reasons."

The project justifies such bold interference in the 1,400-year-old content of the Hadith by rigorous academic research.

Prof Gormez points out that in another speech, the Prophet said "he longed for the day when a woman might travel long distances alone".

So, he argues, it is clear what the Prophet's goal was.

Original spirit

Yet, until now, the ban has remained in the text, and helps to restrict the free movement of some Muslim women to this day.

There's also violence against women within families, including sexual harassment... This does not exist in Islam... we have to explain that to them Hulya Koc, a "vaize"

As part of its aggressive programme of renewal, Turkey has given theological training to 450 women, and appointed them as senior imams called "vaizes".

They have been given the task of explaining the original spirit of Islam to remote communities in Turkey's vast interior.

One of the women, Hulya Koc, looked out over a sea of headscarves at a town meeting in central Turkey and told the women of the equality, justice and human rights guaranteed by an accurate interpretation of the Koran - one guided and confirmed by the revised Hadith.

She says that, at the moment, Islam is being widely used to justify the violent suppression of women.

"There are honour killings," she explains.

"We hear that some women are being killed when they marry the wrong person or run away with someone they love.

"There's also violence against women within families, including sexual harassment by uncles and others. This does not exist in Islam... we have to explain that to them."

'New Islam'

According to Fadi Hakura, an expert on Turkey from Chatham House in London, Turkey is doing nothing less than recreating Islam - changing it from a religion whose rules must be obeyed, to one designed to serve the needs of people in a modern secular democracy.

He says that to achieve it, the state is fashioning a new Islam.

"This is kind of akin to the Christian Reformation," he says.

"Not exactly the same, but if you think, it's changing the theological foundations of [the] religion. "

Fadi Hakura believes that until now secularist Turkey has been intent on creating a new politics for Islam.

Now, he says, "they are trying to fashion a new Islam."

Significantly, the "Ankara School" of theologians working on the new Hadith have been using Western critical techniques and philosophy.

They have also taken an even bolder step - rejecting a long-established rule of Muslim scholars that later (and often more conservative) texts override earlier ones.

"You have to see them as a whole," says Fadi Hakura.

"You can't say, for example, that the verses of violence override the verses of peace. This is used a lot in the Middle East, this kind of ideology.

"I cannot impress enough how fundamental [this change] is."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7264903.stm

Interesting news regarding "revising" Islam. This is something to watch, I believe. There is a power struggle going on throughout Islam between hardline fundamentalists and reform-minded theologians and political/religious activists. It will truly be interesting to see how it pans out. I am particularly interested in this story as it focuses on the Hadith, which are often the most repressive "scriptures" and those used to justify maltreatment of women and jihad and such.

Robed Obama picture ignites row

US Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have traded accusations over a photo of Mr Obama circulating on the internet.

The picture, sent to the Drudge Report website, shows Mr Obama wearing traditional African dress during a visit to Kenya in 2006.

The Obama camp said it was circulated by Mrs Clinton's staff as a smear. Mrs Clinton's team denied the accusation.

The row comes as the rivals campaign for two crucial primaries next week.

Analysts say Mrs Clinton needs to win the contests, in Texas and Ohio, to remain in the race to choose the Democratic candidate for November's presidential election.

'Fear-mongering'

The photograph shows Mr Obama - whose father came from Kenya - wearing a white turban and a white robe presented to him by elders in the north-east of the country.

Her campaign has engaged in the most shameful, offensive fear-mongering we've seen from either party in this election David Plouffe, Obama campaign chief, accusing the Clinton camp

According to the Drudge Report, which published the photograph on Monday, it was circulated by "Clinton staffers".

Some Clinton aides have tried in the past to suggest to Democrats that Barack Obama's background might be off-putting to mainstream voters.

A campaign volunteer was sacked last year after circulating an email suggesting, falsely, that Mr Obama was a Muslim.

But the BBC Justin Webb in Ohio says the photograph - coming at this pivotal moment in the campaign - is being seen by the Obama team as particularly offensive.

His campaign manager, David Plouffe, accused Mrs Clinton's aides of "the most shameful, offensive fear-mongering we've seen from either party in this election".

The accusation was dismissed by Mrs Clinton's campaign manager Maggie Williams.

"If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed," she said.

"Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely."

Mrs Williams did not address the question of whether staffers circulated the photo.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/7263783.stm

Yay, another piece of crap already. Maybe next it will be a picture of Obama shaking hands with Osama bin Laden or smoking hash with Saddam Hussein (one whose name he shares and one whose name is really pretty similar sounding). Maybe it is nothing, and maybe Americans won't even bat an eye that a the black, son of a Kenyan immigrant whose names are Muslim in origin was wearing traditional style Somali clothing ( a country where 16 American marines died in a failed peace keeping mission) in a photo. Maybe...I hope.

Patriotism questions for Obama

No flag pin, no hand over his heart: Is he exposed?

The Associated Press

updated 5:26 a.m. ET, Sun., Feb. 24, 2008

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama's refusal to wear an American flag lapel pin along with a photo of him not putting his hand over his heart during the National Anthem led conservatives on Internet and in the media to question his patriotism.

Now Obama's wife, Michelle, has drawn their ire, too, for saying recently that she's really proud of her country for the first time in her adult life.

Conservative consultants say that combined, the cases could be an issue for Obama in the general election if he wins the nomination, especially as he runs against Vietnam war hero Sen. John McCain.

'Blame America first crowd'
"The reason it hasn't been an issue so far is that we're still in the microcosm of the Democratic primary," said Republican consultant Roger Stone. "Many Americans will find the three things offensive. Barack Obama is out of the McGovern wing of the party, and he is part of the blame America first crowd."

Opponents of Sen. John Kerry proved in the 2004 election that voters are sensitive to suggestions that a candidate is not sufficiently patriotic. The Democratic presidential nominee's campaign was torpedoed by critics of his Vietnam War record called the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, even though he won multiple military honors and was lauded by his superiors.

The Swift Boat campaign started as a relatively small television ad buy that exploded into an issue that dogged Kerry for months. The Massachusetts senator has conceded since losing to President Bush that the campaign and his lackluster response to unsubstantiated allegations he considered unworthy of a reaction likely cost him the election. And the term even became part of the campaign lexicon -- swift boating.

Obama already is the subject of a shadowy smear campaign based on the Internet that falsely suggests he's a Muslim intent on destroying the United States. Obama is a Christian and has been fighting the e-mail hoax, which also claims he doesn't put his hand over his heart during the Pledge of Allegiance, and he's been trying to correct the misinformation.

"Whenever I'm in the United States Senate, I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America," Obama frequently tells voters.

"I've been going to the same church for 20 years, praising Jesus," he adds.

Retired Major General Scott Gration, an Obama military adviser, said he expects the attacks will only increase if Obama wins the Democratic nomination.

"People are projecting things and taking things out of context," Gration said. "There's absolutely no question in my mind that Michelle and Barack are extremely patriotic, appreciate our freedoms and our values and everything else that the flag represents."

Officials with the McCain campaign and the Republican Party say they won't be suggesting Obama is less than patriotic, and instead plan to focus their criticisms on his record and inexperience if he wins the nomination. Well-funded outside groups, however, consider anything fair game.

Conservative Republican consultant Keith Appell, who worked with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, said Obama's opposition to the war will create a "striking contrast between McCain the war hero and Obama the poster child for the anti-war movement."

"If you are McCain, you want to play up the decorated war hero, loves his country, served his country," Appell said. "You want to play those themes up as much as possible, especially in comparison to Obama and his role in the anti-war movement."

Questions around Michelle
On Monday, Michelle Obama told an audience in Milwaukee, "For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country. Not just because Barack is doing well, but I think people are hungry for change."

Cindy McCain, McCain's wife, days later responded by saying, "I have, and always will be, proud of my country." Barack Obama has expressed frustration that his wife's remarks had been taken out of context and turned into political fodder -- both the Obamas say she was talking about politics in the United States, not the country itself.

Last summer, Obama was photographed by Time magazine at an event in Iowa standing with his hands folded during the national anthem. His primary rivals Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson appear beside him, with their hands on their hearts.

It has been repeatedly reported that the moment came during the Pledge of Allegiance, but that's not the case.

In October, Obama told Iowa television station KCRG that he decided to stop wearing a U.S. flag lapel pin during the run-up to the Iraq war because it had become "a substitute for, I think, true patriotism."

"I decided I won't wear that pin on my chest. Instead, I'm going to try to tell the American people what I believe will make this country great and, hopefully, that will be a testimony to my patriotism," Obama said.

Obama's comments led conservatives and media commentators to question his patriotism.

Questioning his patriotism
"First he kicked his American flag pin to the curb. Now Barack Obama has a new round of patriotism problems. Wait until you hear what the White House hopeful didn't do during the singing of the national anthem," said Steve Doocy, co-host of "Fox and Friends" on the Fox News Channel.

"He felt it OK to come out of the closet as the domestic insurgent he is," former radio host Mark Williams said on Fox.

Gration said he had a copy of the national anthem photo e-mailed to him by a friend who didn't know the facts and questioned how a military man could support someone who doesn't honor the Pledge of Allegiance.

"I go to baseball games and football games and there's just a minority of us who put our hands over our heart. It's not an indication of patriotism," Gration said. Gration said he personally wears a flag pin, but "if I meet someone who doesn't have a lapel pin, it doesn't mean they are more or less patriotic than I am."

And, he added, "I don't think you can find Barack again not putting his hand over his heart at the national anthem."

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Stories like this really irk me. I have never really understood the relationship between cheap symbols and patriotism. In my mind, patriotism is not defined by one's willingness to put a yellow ribbon or tiny American flag sticker on their car or wear a tiny flag lapel pin. If people want to do that because to them it is meaningful, well bully for them. But for many people--me included--these symbols say little about a person's patriotism and dedication to the values of their country. In fact, I always feel a little nervous when everyone slaps a flag sticker on their car and waves about symbols of the motherland. It all seems a little nationalist to me. But people are free to express their patriotism however they choose. Now, what I really don't get is how a person refusing to wear flag pin, put a sticker on their car, or put their hand on their heart during the pledge or national anthem suggests that they are not patriotic. That attitude that everyone step in line and use the same symbols, show support in the same way is where I think patriotism begins to take the dark turn toward nationalism and it unsettles me greatly. People express their patriotism in lots of way, many of which in my mind require much more dedication than picking up a flag sticker while shopping at Wal-mart or standing during the anthem at a baseball game--say, voting, for example, or participating in a protest, or volunteering for some public good. Anyone who is criticizing Obama's patriotism because he didn't want to wear a flag lapel pin should be ashamed of themselves. That's crap.

I guess this is where the campaign begins to turn uglier. Beck suggested as such earlier. Maybe we can look forward to hearing all about Obama being the leader of an Al-Qaeda sleeper cell and how John McCain liked to step on babies and kick puppies in Vietnam. Ugh. The next few months will not be pretty.

Stealth bomber crashes; pilots safe

HAGATNA, Guam (AP) -- A B-2 stealth bomber plunged to the ground shortly after taking off from an air base in Guam on Saturday, the first time one crashed, but both pilots ejected safely, Air Force officials said.

The aircraft was taking off with three others on their last flight out of Guam after a four-month deployment, part of a continuous U.S. bomber presence in the western Pacific. After the crash, the other three bombers were being kept on Guam, said Maj. Eric Hilliard at Hickham Air Force Base in Hawaii.

At least one B-2 bomber had taken off safely from Andersen Air Force Base but was brought back when another aircraft plunged to the ground.

There were no injuries on the ground or damage to buildings, and no munitions were on board. Each B-2 bomber costs about $1.2 billion to build.

Thick, black smoke could be seen billowing from the wreckage at Andersen, said Jeanne Ward, a resident in the northern village of Yigo who was on the base visiting her husband.

Ward said she didn't witness the crash but noticed a rising plume of smoke behind the base's air control tower.

She said crowds began to gather as emergency vehicles arrived. "Everybody was on their cell phones, and the first thing everyone wanted to know was did the pilots make it out in time," she said.

The Air Force, without identifying the pilots, said one was medically evaluated and released, and the other was in stable condition at Guam Naval Hospital.

A board of officers will investigate what caused the aircraft to crash at 10:30 a.m., shortly after taking off from a runway. It was the first crash of a B-2 bomber, said Capt. Sheila Johnston, a spokeswoman for Air Combat Command at Langley Air Force Base in Virginia.

All 21 stealth bombers are based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, but the Air Force has been rotating several of them through Guam since 2004, along with B-1 and B-52 bombers.
The rotations are designed to boost the U.S. security presence in the Asia-Pacific region while other U.S. forces diverted to fight in the Middle East.

The B-2 was first publicly displayed in 1988 and took its first flight a year later. The first bomber was delivered to Whiteman in 1993.

The bombers on Guam were scheduled to return to Missouri now that six B-52s from the 96th Bomb Wing at Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, have arrived to replace them.

The distinctive B-2 is described as a "multi-role bomber" that blends stealth technology with a highly efficient aerodynamic design. It is able to deliver large payloads at great range and has been used in combat over Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq.

The accident occurred 11 days after a Navy plane crashed into the ocean about 20 miles northeast of Guam's Ritidian Point. Four aircrew members ejected from the EA-6B Prowler electronic warfare aircraft and were rescued by helicopter.
Guam is a U.S. territory 3,700 miles southwest of Hawaii.

I can't believe I haven't seen this anywhere else in the news... and perhaps it's because people aren't really grasping what this means. Given the cost of research, yearly maintainance, etc, losing a single B-2 is not much different than losing half of a Nimitz class aircraft carrier. The crash of a single B-2 is 1.2 billion dollars down the toilet.

And I think this reinforces my stance that, while we have a duty and an obligation to make sure that our armed forces are equipped with the best possible equipment available, the B-2 just doesn't deliver the best bang for the buck. While yes, it is a scientific marvel and an incredible achievement in aerospace technology, there are cheaper solutions available that can do the job while a.) not endangering the lives of an aircrew b.) not being so incredibly expensive that we're too afraid to actually USE it for fear of losing it. And let's face it, while this level of expense can be excused for something as enduring and as proven as an aircraft carrier, I don't think this level of investment in a combat aircraft is wise. When something malfunctions on the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, it can be fixed, and go about its way. When something malfunctions on a stealth bomber, you have to hope and pray that you'll make it back to an airfield before a catastrophic failure occurs, all the while giving the ejection handles the hairy eyeball.

Freedom squelches terrorist violence

KSG associate professor researches freedom-terrorism link

By Alvin Powell
Harvard News Office

A John F. Kennedy School of Government researcher has cast doubt on the widely held belief that terrorism stems from poverty, finding instead that terrorist violence is related to a nation's level of political freedom.

Associate Professor of Public Policy Alberto Abadie examined data on terrorism and variables such as wealth, political freedom, geography, and ethnic fractionalization for nations that have been targets of terrorist attacks.

Abadie, whose work was published in the Kennedy School's Faculty Research Working Paper Series, included both acts of international and domestic terrorism in his analysis.

Though after the 9/11 attacks most of the work in this area has focused on international terrorism, Abadie said terrorism originating within the country where the attacks occur actually makes up the bulk of terrorist acts each year. According to statistics from the MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base for 2003, which Abadie cites in his analysis, there were 1,536 reports of domestic terrorism worldwide, compared with just 240 incidents of international terrorism.

Before analyzing the data, Abadie believed it was a reasonable assumption that terrorism has its roots in poverty, especially since studies have linked civil war to economic factors. However, once the data was corrected for the influence of other factors studied, Abadie said he found no significant relationship between a nation's wealth and the level of terrorism it experiences.

"In the past, we heard people refer to the strong link between terrorism and poverty, but in fact when you look at the data, it's not there. This is true not only for events of international terrorism, as previous studies have shown, but perhaps more surprisingly also for the overall level of terrorism, both of domestic and of foreign origin," Abadie said.

Instead, Abadie detected a peculiar relationship between the levels of political freedom a nation affords and the severity of terrorism. Though terrorism declined among nations with high levels of political freedom, it was the intermediate nations that seemed most vulnerable.

Like those with much political freedom, nations at the other extreme - with tightly controlled autocratic governments - also experienced low levels of terrorism.

Though his study didn't explore the reasons behind the trends he researched, Abadie said it could be that autocratic nations' tight control and repressive practices keep terrorist activities in check, while nations making the transition to more open, democratic governments - such as currently taking place in Iraq and Russia - may be politically unstable, which makes them more vulnerable.

"When you go from an autocratic regime and make the transition to democracy, you may expect a temporary increase in terrorism," Abadie said.

Abadie's study also found a strong connection in the data between terrorism and geographic factors, such as elevation or tropical weather.

"Failure to eradicate terrorism in some areas of the world has often been attributed to geographic barriers, like mountainous terrain in Afghanistan or tropical jungle in Colombia. This study provides empirical evidence of the link between terrorism and geography," Abadie said.

In Abadie's opinion, the connection between geography and terrorism is hardly surprising.

"Areas of difficult access offer safe haven to terrorist groups, facilitate training, and provide funding through other illegal activities like the production and trafficking of cocaine and opiates," Abadie wrote in the paper.

A native of Spain's Basque region, Abadie said he has long been interested in terrorism and related issues. His past research has explored the effect of terrorism on economic activity, using the Basque country as a case study.

Abadie is turning his attention to the effect of terrorism on international capital flows. Some analysts have argued that terrorist attacks wouldn't have much of an impact on the economy, since unlike a war's widespread damage, the damage from terrorist attacks tends to be relatively small or confined to a small area.

In an era of open international capital markets, however, Abadie said terrorism may have a greater chilling effect than previously thought, since even a low risk of damage from a terrorist attack may be enough to send investors looking elsewhere.

http://www.hno.harvard.edu/gazette/2004/11.04/05-terror.html

Russia could use force in Kosovo

Russia's ambassador to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, has warned that Russia could use military force if the Kosovo independence dispute escalates.

"If the EU develops a unified position or if Nato exceeds its mandate set by the UN, then these organisations will be in conflict with the UN," he said.

In that case Russia would "proceed on the basis that in order to be respected we need to use brute force", he said.

Many EU members have recognised Kosovo, but several oppose recognition.

Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, backs Serbia, which has condemned the independence declaration issued by the Kosovo parliament on 17 February.

On Tuesday members of the Serb minority in Kosovo attacked two border posts staffed by UN personnel and Kosovo police.

The violence led the Nato troops in Kosovo - known as K-For - to reinforce the border with Serbia.

Kosovo's majority ethnic Albanians are following a plan drawn up by UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari for "supervised independence", which was rejected by Serbia.

The EU will soon deploy 2,000 officials to strengthen law and order in Kosovo, which has a population of about two million. Russia argues that the mission has no legal basis.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7258801.stm

Troubling. I am not sure what the best course of action might be. Serbia is showing little interest in controlling nationalist protesters--the Serbian president for example has refused to condemn the attack on the US embassy, saying essentially that the US got what it deserved. The EU and US seem to have done little to appease Serbia's anger over losing an important chunk of their country. And Russia is acting bellicose in support of its ally and in an attempt to show the West it can still throw its weight around. It will be interesting to see whether Serbia accepts this dismemberment and moves toward the West and closer to EU membership or bucks the whole program and cozies back up to Russia.

Split EU meets to debate Kosovo

Some chanted "This is Serbia" while other carried banners appealing for help from Russia, which has opposed Kosovo's independence.

On Sunday, Kosovo's majority ethnic Albanians celebrated with fireworks late into the night after parliament's declaration.

In Brussels the chairman of the EU meeting, Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, said he understood "many of the member states will recognise" Kosovo.

His British and French colleagues insisted Kosovo was a unique case and called for EU unity on the issue, the BBC's Oana Lungescu reports.

I understand many EU members will recognise Kosovo Dimitrij Rupel Slovenian Foreign Minister

UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband described Kosovo as a "unique situation which deserves a unique response".

"I think it's very important that we recognise that all of the countries of the Western Balkans are European countries and therefore it's critical that Europe shows real leadership in how it ensures that peace and stability are the order of the day," he said.

But Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said Spain would not recognise Sunday's declaration because it "does not respect international law".

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her country, which has been predicted to back Kosovo independence, would not declare its position on Monday.

"The aim is to have a platform of unity within the EU, on which each member state can act," she said.

The EU has already agreed to send about 2,000 police, justice and civil administration officials to oversee Kosovo and help develop the province's institutions.

Russian opposition

A split emerged at the UN Security Council on Sunday when Russia said Kosovo's declaration should be null and void.

KOSOVO PROFILE Population about two million Majority ethnic Albanian; 10% Serb Under UN control since Nato drove out Serb forces in 1999 2,000-strong EU staff to take over from UN after independence Nato to stay to provide security

Russia's UN ambassador said there was no basis for changing a 1999 security council resolution on Kosovo's status - which hands Kosovo to the UN.

But seven Western states including the United States, the UK, Belgium and France issued a statement saying the situation had moved on.

Russia has indicated that Western recognition of an independent Kosovo could have implications for the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

China expressed its "deep concern" about Kosovo's declaration, urging it to reopen talks with Serbia.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called on all sides to keep to their commitments and refrain from violence.

A second emergency session is due to be held later on Monday. Unfortunately today Kosovo and Serbia are to become two dispensable chess-pieces of EU/NATO and Russia Mat, Ljubljana, Slovenia

The independence declaration said Kosovo would be built in accordance with the UN plan drawn up by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.

The international military and civilian presence - also envisaged by the Ahtisaari plan - was welcome, Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci said.

There should be no fear of discrimination in new Kosovo, he said, vowing to eradicate any such practices.

Violence

A hand grenade thrown at a UN court building in the flashpoint town of Mitrovica caused slight damage but otherwise there were no reports of trouble in Kosovo.

In Belgrade, clashes between gangs of youths and riot police went on into the early hours of Monday morning.

Demonstrators broke windows at the US embassy and also attacked the Serbian government building and the embassy of Slovenia which currently holds the EU presidency.

The Serbian government has called for a mass protest rally against the Kosovo declaration later in the week.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7249909.stm


Any thoughts on the new Kosovar independence? I am usually in favor of self-determination movements, and in general am all for Kosovo as an independent state. Still, the debate in the EU is interesting and brings up a lot of questions about when and for whom self-determination is fair and appropriate. And this is hard, because by what criteria is the right to self determination decided? These are major questions in the EU, especially since Spain, France, and a handful of other states have significant separatist movements. Is it inconsistent to say that Kosovo can be independent but the Basque region has to remain part of Spain or Corsica has to remain part of France? The problem is that it is really not possible to continually split nations into tinier and tinier entities; they are not economically or politically viable (at some point). If I have to put forth a general statement I would suggest that ethnic enclaves or minority regions should be given significant autonomy (as in Spain) if they exist in liberal democratic states where their rights are protected. If, on the other hand, they exist in an autocratic state where they face abuse or persecution then the international community should support their independence. I could go on and be more detailed, but this is getting long.

Machines 'to match man by 2029'

By Helen Briggs
BBC science reporter, Boston

Machines will achieve human-level artificial intelligence by 2029, a leading US inventor has predicted.

Humanity is on the brink of advances that will see tiny robots implanted in people's brains to make them more intelligent said engineer Ray Kurzweil.

He said machines and humans would eventually merge through devices implanted in the body to boost intelligence and health.

"It's really part of our civilisation," Mr Kurzweil said.

"But that's not going to be an alien invasion of intelligent machines to displace us."

Machines were already doing hundreds of things humans used to do, at human levels of intelligence or better, in many different areas, he said.

Man versus machine

"I've made the case that we will have both the hardware and the software to achieve human level artificial intelligence with the broad suppleness of human intelligence including our emotional intelligence by 2029," he said.

We'll have intelligent nanobots go into our brains... to make us smarter Ray Kurzweil

"We're already a human machine civilisation, we use our technology to expand our physical and mental horizons and this will be a further extension of that."

Humans and machines would eventually merge, by means of devices embedded in people's bodies to keep them healthy and improve their intelligence, predicted Mr Kurzweil.

"We'll have intelligent nanobots go into our brains through the capillaries and interact directly with our biological neurons," he told BBC News.

CHALLENGES FACING HUMANITY Make solar energy affordable Provide energy from fusion Develop carbon sequestration Manage the nitrogen cycle Provide access to clean water Reverse engineer the brain Prevent nuclear terror Secure cyberspace Enhance virtual reality Improve urban infrastructure Advance health informatics Engineer better medicines Advance personalised learning Explore natural frontiers

The nanobots, he said, would "make us smarter, remember things better and automatically go into full emergent virtual reality environments through the nervous system".

Mr Kurzweil is one of 18 influential thinkers chosen to identify the great technological challenges facing humanity in the 21st century by the US National Academy of Engineering.

The experts include Google founder Larry Page and genome pioneer Dr Craig Venter.

The 14 challenges were announced at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston, which concludes on Monday.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/7248875.stm

A Follow Up to the Gaza Wall Event

Hamas' act of breaching the wall that separated Gaza from Egypt was an event whose importance must not be underestimated. Its significance is amply demonstrated by the reverberations that are still being felt and the shifts in the political discourse that are not only ongoing, but multiplying.

Leading Palestinian pollster, Khalil Shikaki has consistently reported, almost from the time Hamas was elected in January 2006, on the gradual decline the group's popularity has faced. As he explains in this interview, the decline was slow and steady with the exception of last June, when Hamas took control of Gaza. That month saw a precipitous drop in Hamas' popularity. Yet, even before the wall breach last month, Shikaki observed that the decline had stopped.

Shikaki attributes that change to Israel's siege on the Strip, and the attacks within Gaza by the IDF which were escalating even then. While Shikaki does not have new polling data since the Rafah wall was breached, his reading of the pulse of the Palestinian populace is that Hamas' popularity is back at least to the level it was at before the takeover. While he believes the breach of the wall was a significant factor in this rise, he attributes it primarily to Israel's siege, attacks and power cuts.

Hamas may have decided to resume attacks on Israeli civilians, but they have still reaped substantial gains from breaching the wall. They have now put Israel, Egypt and Fatah on the defensive. They have established their control in Gaza and made it impossible to avoid dealing with them, although Israel and Fatah (as well as the United States) are clinging to that course. But with Hamas' rejuvenated popularity, they are now in a position where a major Israeli attack could well be the death blow to the Palestinian Authority and further boost Hamas.

Fatah is saying that it has undertaken "major democratic reforms," which would address the major reason they lost the 2006 elections in the first place. But it remains to be seen if the Palestinian people deem these reforms sufficient and whether the failure to win any substantive concessions from Israel has not eroded their credibility beyond repair.

Israel is now contemplating the large-scale invasion of Gaza that had been off the table for a while. Meanwhile, it has begun instituting minor cuts in electricity to Gaza, smaller than those it had initially imposed before Hamas breached the wall. These power cuts have brought a great deal of criticism, as they are collective punishment, and that criticism has even come from countries that are generally supportive of Israel. But, as this UN OCHA report details, the current cuts are small and have limited impact.

What is important to realize is that it is not the current power cuts, but rather the longer term siege and Israeli attacks that are causing the massive power shortages in Gaza. In 2006, after Palestinian groups captured an Israeli soldier (who is still being held by Hamas), Israel launched a major offensive in Gaza which nearly destroyed the Strip's only power plant. Although new transformers were installed, the plant's maximum output is now less than 60% of its former capacity. This meant that Gaza, already dependent upon Israel for some 40% of its electricity needs was now getting some 60% of it from Israel.

Moreover, the plant itself is dependent upon Israeli shipments of fuel to keep it running. This was the issue that was at the fore at the beginning of the year. Since Gaza has already used up the reserve fuel for the plant (reserves that would have lasted by themselves for about 9 days), this gives Israel control over virtually all of Gaza's power supply. While Israel talks about ways to completely sever its relationship with Gaza, this is precisely the sort of root that 41 years of occupation has put down that makes it impossible to simply decide to separate. It will take years for Gaza to either build up its own capacity or construct a new feeder system with Egypt to begin to replace the electricity it gets from Israel.

In all of this, the current electricity cuts are merely one more log on an already large fire, one that is threatening to burn Gaza to the ground.

These are not the only effects of the stubborn refusal of Israel to find a solution that involves neither collective punishment nor military action. And that seems unlikely to change, given the sort of narrow view that Defense Minister Ehud Barak brings to the problem. The occupation also institutionalized a sort of "captive economy" in the West Bank and Gaza and the siege policy and the generally cold business atmosphere that has been created by the greatly heightened conflict in recent years has cut deeply into Israeli exports to the Palestinian Territories. So, in this sense, Israel is hurting itself in order to inflict much greater harm on the Palestinians. It should also be added that the ongoing siege is having an impact that is not being seen beyond the travails of Sderot and the increasingly grim outlook among most Israelis. Israel's economy is also taking some serious hits because of their foolhardy tactics.

And all the while, the rockets continue to hit Sderot and other Negev towns, meaning the Israeli government is also refusing to acknowledge that the policy of confrontation has failed to gain any security for its own citizens. As a Hamas spokesman expresses in Ha'aretz the policy has only strengthened the group's resolve toward a path of violence, particularly since Israel won't even respond to Hamas' floating of cease-fire possibilities. For its part, Hamas seems intent on escalating matters despite the effects on the population of Gaza.

If Israel does make good on its threat to invade Gaza again and possibly target the Hamas political leadership they will be doing so in the hope that the Palestinian Authority can finally assume control of the Strip. Yet even if they succeed in toppling Hamas (something not at all certain by any means) they will also have severely undermined the credibility of Mahmoud Abbas and enraged the Palestinian populace even further. One wonders how many times it will have to be proven to Israel that these tactics do not work before it finally takes the lesson to heart.

US Presidential Election

As reported on the JVP blog Muzzlewatch several weeks ago, a particularly vicious e-mail campaign was launched against Barack Obama targeting a Jewish audience. The campaign was so ugly that leaders of the large, institutionalized Jewish community united in denouncing the campaign, and even did so without any qualification regarding Obama. This is reflective of the significant Jewish support Obama actually does have.

Obama, like all the other candidates, has been staunch in his support of Israel, and has backed off some comments he made before he was a presidential candidate which indicated some empathy with the Palestinians. This is par for the course, although the so-called "pro-Israel" lobby has been working on Obama even harder than they usually do with presidential candidates.

But the "Israel Lobby" specter is likely to be raised again after the head of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations, Malcolm Hoenlein, expressed some "concerns" about Obama's talk of change. Hoenlein later claimed he was mis-quoted and taken out of context and that he was not referring to Obama but to all of the candidates. In any event, though, this episode is furthering the questions about Obama and the Jewish community, as well as adding fuel to the "Jewish Lobby" fire.

In one of the more bizarre flickers of that fire, marginalized Democratic candidate Dennis Kucinich of Ohio was rumored to have been approached by representatives of AIPAC joined by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (regularly identified as an "AIPAC stooge") and pressed to drop his impeachment campaign targeting President Bush and Vice President Cheney. Why exactly Pelosi would desire this was never made clear (and what stake AIPAC would have in trying to push a point that isn't going to go anywhere, especially in Bush's last year in office is equally unclear), but Kucinich quickly rushed to dispel the rumor.

Meanwhile, the presumptive Republican winner, John McCain, is working closely with former Democrat and now Independent Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman. While this means little regarding the Jewish vote as well as Jewish campaign financing (both of which are overwhelmingly Democratic at this stage), it does seem to be helping McCain among so-called "Christian Zionists," many of whom are more inclined to his more radically conservative opponents in the Republican race. But with that race only being a matter of declaring McCain the winner, Lieberman, who still retains a good deal of credibility with some of the more conservative elements among Jewish Democrats and is seen as very valuable for Israel, may be a significant factor in the November election should there be continuing unease among Jewish Democratic donors with Obama. If Hillary Clinton, however, emerges as the Democratic candidate, it is unlikely anything will bring Jewish Democratic support over to McCain.

Finally, we should note the death of Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA). Lantos was about to retire from Congress in any case, so his death doesn't change things much going forward. But Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor ever to serve in Congress, was particularly emblematic of the paradox presented by US Middle East policy. Lantos was known as a staunch defender of human rights in general, but when it came to the Israel-Palestine issue, he was one of the House's leading hawks. He was, in recent years, often to be found working with Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinan, who, though relatively moderate for a Republican on domestic issues, is a leading hawk on foreign policy, including, but not limited to, the question of Israel.

Inside Israel

The Registrar of Non-Profit organizations in Israel has stripped the activist organization Peace Now of its non-profit status in Israel. The decision was based on a technicality involving Peace Now's parent organization. Peace Now had always operated in the fashion it is now being told is illegitimate, and it has done so for thirty years. It cannot be doubted that this action was motivated by politics, not legalities.

In another political use of the law, five Palestinian residents of the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Silwan were arrested after having petitioned the Israeli High Court of Justice to stop an excavation project under their homes which threatened to damage them. Palestinian demonstrators had earlier put a temporary stop to the excavation with a protest, but the project continued. When two of the Silwan residents went to file their complaint, they were arrested. Three more were arrested in raids later on.

Demonstrating the ambivalence of Israeli attitudes toward Palestinians in a most extreme way, Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit announced that Israel planned to build a new city particularly for the Arab citizens of Israel in the Galilee. This announcement came just two days after Sheetrit had called for leveling Gaza neighborhoods in response to ongoing rocket fire. The announcement also coincided with the Deputy State Prosecutor affirming the decision in late January of the Attorney General not to prosecute any Israeli policemen for the killing of thirteen Arab citizens in 2000 during protests against Israeli reprisals at the beginning of the second intifada (a demonstration which took place, it should be noted, before any major Palestinian bombing attacks on Israelis).

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu called for the Shas party to bolt the Olmert government, a move which would, if Shas acted upon it, eliminate the Kadima party's thin majority coalition and force new elections. Shas has already indicated they do not plan to leave the government, although they have been insisting that they would bolt if Jerusalem was discussed with the Palestinians, as some reports, often from right-wing sources, indicate is happening.

This is Netanyahu's boldest statement to date, and it is indicative of the increasing strength of the far-right, as represented by Likud, in Israel. With its relatively moderate elements having bolted for Kadima when Ariel Sharon formed that party, Likud is even further on the right than it was before, but polls have been indicating for some time that Likud would easily get the most votes in new elections. The problem is that Likud might not be able to pull together a coalition, which would likely need to be drawn almost entirely from the right. For the same reason, Ehud Barak and the Labor Party are also staying in the government; while they don't promise to get nearly as many seats as Likud, Labor is more likely to be able to cobble together a coalition, but it would be an exceedingly weak one. Thus, Olmert and Kadima go on.

In the West Bank and East Jerusalem

Although Israel recently suspended some construction projects in Jerusalem, causing something of an internal political row, plans are still in place for more construction in the East Jerusalem settlements of Har Homa and Pisgat Ze'ev. Naturally, the Palestinian Authority objects to these plans, as they create more "facts on the ground" which influence the outcome of any potential negotiations over Jerusalem. It is well to remember that a solution with no Palestinian control over some part of Jerusalem is no solution at all.

For reasons as yet unknown, Israel arrested Mahmoud Abbas' Advisor for Jerusalem Affairs, Hatim Abdul-Qadir on Tuesday. Abdul-Qadir is a long-time Fatah leader, one who is noted for his stances against corruption and human rights abuses in the Palestinian Authority, and is generally regarded as a leading moderate.

Finally, we close with two unusual stories of dialogue between settlers and Palestinians. In one episode, a leading citizen of Hebron met with the local army commander and the mayor of Kiryat Arba to try to work out arrangements to ease travel restrictions in the region. The meeting, however, ended with no clear results.

In the second episode, Rabbi Menachem Froman of the settlement of Tekoa met with Palestinian journalist Khaled Amayreh to draft a recommendation for a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Froman has reached out in dialogue projects for years, often working with religious leaders among Palestinians, including Hamas representatives in the past. Amayreh is a well-known journalist who is a frequent contributor to such major Arab media sources as al-Jazeera and al-Ahram and is known to support a one-state solution and, though a secularist, to have good relations and contacts at the highest levels of Hamas. The two men presented their draft to both Hamas and Israeli leaders. Amayreh says that Hamas accepted the proposal, while Froman confirms that Israel has thus far ignored it.

Source: Jewish Voice for Peace weekly news roundup.

Sorry for the length, I just thought there was some interesting stuff here, including some issues related to the US presidential race. What caught my eye especially was the interview with Kalil Shikaki. I have met him a couple of times and he is a really interesting guy. He opened the first polling center in the Occupied Territories, and his center has a wealth of interesting polling data from there and from Israel that few people in the US seem to see. I encourage everybody to give it a look. Lots of interesting info on Palestinian opinion. Here is the link:
http://www.pcpsr.org/index.html

Notes on the Primaries

Well, if the Republicans are looking for the new Reagan it looks like McCain has it. He speaks now like an actor, damning America's "enemies" in vague and abstract terms, speaking out against the liberals who promote diplomacy and compromise as misguided--but maybe well-intentioned--fools that would ruin the country, and claiming that he has been reluctantly chosen by history as a humble leader void of ambition and self-interest. And on the domestic front, he of course wants people to get up and help themselves rather than allow government to help benefit the disadvantaged--big government will ruin the country and never helped anyone. Sounds like Reagan to me. So, I guess if people liked Reagan, they should support McCain. I for one thought history had shown Reagan's policies to accomplish bloating the pockets of the rich and driving the country into recession (let alone setting back AIDs research, sponsoring repressive regimes in the developing world, and further stratifying the nation economically). Ugh...that speech was painful both in its false sentiment and hollow in its message. I am even more worried about this since I am increasingly coming to think that the Republicans will likely win. The Democrats will eat themselves (and for some good reasons), leaving the Republicans to waltz in and set up shop for another 4 years. I guess the one upside is that things can't get any worse....right?

Iran's clerical old guard being pushed aside

New generation replacing clerics who had sought better ties with West

By Thomas Erdbrink

The Washington Post

updated 2:15 a.m. ET, Mon., Feb. 11, 2008

TEHRAN - After Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's followers toppled a U.S.-backed autocracy in Iran, he brought to power a coterie of politically engaged clerics who sought to create the world's first Islamic republic. Nearly 30 years later, a new generation of politicians is sweeping aside those clerics, many of whom had become proponents of better relations with the West and gradual steps toward greater democracy.

The newcomers are former military commanders, filmmakers and mayors, many younger than 50 and only a few of them clerics. They are vowing to carry out the promises of the revolution and to place Iran among the world's leading nations. This rising generation has the support of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader in Iran's political system, who backs the government's assertive foreign and nuclear policies.

Last month, local election councils disqualified scores of clerics and their allies -- including Khomeini's grandson, Ali Eshragi -- from seeking election to parliament March 14. Such candidates have been disqualified before, but analysts said the absence of members of the clerical old guard from other institutions of power in Iran means they will find it difficult to mount an electoral comeback.

"These newcomers are pushing the followers of the imam out of power," said cleric and political veteran Rasoul Montajabnia, using an honorific to refer to Khomeini. "We are being dealt with disloyally."

Ahmadinejad strengthened
Analysts say the purging of those clerics strengthens President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the most prominent leader of the new generation, and will result in a smaller political class that is more beholden to the supreme leader and less tolerant of even internal dissent.

"The newcomers don't have the same power base as the old guard," said Mehrdad Serjooie, a political analyst and former journalist. "They have no reputation dating from the time of the revolution, no direct access to oil money and no important supporters.

"The old factions often could operate more independently because they were powerful" in their own right, Serjooie added. "The new generation depends more on the leader."

Khamenei two weeks ago publicly vetoed a decision by Ahmadinejad to ignore certain laws passed by parliament. "This was a signal to show who is in charge," Serjooie said.

The newcomers say their emergence is part of a generational change. "For the last 30 years we have seen the same names in Iranian politics. It was natural that clerics took control of the country's affairs after they led the revolution, but as time goes by it's natural that younger non-clerics take over," said Saeed Aboutaleb, 37, a member of parliament since 2004.

He said clerics would remain important. "We need them for guidance, just as the late Imam Khomeini wanted. In the end, this is just a change in clothes," he added, referring to the overcoat and turban worn by clerics and the suits worn by younger politicians. "The newcomers are just as religious."

If the clerics have a chance at regaining the political prominence they enjoyed in the years following the 1979 revolution, analysts say, it will be under the leadership of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an ayatollah and former close aide to Khomeini who lost the presidential election to Ahmadinejad in 2005.

During Rafsanjani's two terms in the 1990s, his faction controlled several important executive and economic institutions in Iran, among them the Oil Ministry. He helped bring cleric Mohammad Khatami to power as his successor in 1997.

Khatami's supporters, known here as reformists, included many onetime revolutionaries, such as former students who came to regret their 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, which led to the severing of ties between Iran and the United States. Rafsanjani's political allies teamed with the reformists and together they began arguing that Islamic law is dynamic and adaptable. They also favored reestablishing relations with the United States through compromise and proposed minor democratic reforms. Later, political fights broke out between the two groups.

Although they held executive power, Khatami and his supporters were prevented from carrying out most of their plans by the judiciary and the Guardian Council, a 12-member body that answers to the supreme leader. Both were dominated by opponents of relations with the United States and of political or religious change.

Most of the candidates disqualified last month belong to Khatami's broad reformist coalition, which sought to compete with the newcomers in this year's parliamentary elections. The Guardian Council is considering appeals and will announce its decisions March 5.

Rafsanjani's supporters, whom the newcomers have accused of corruption, a lack of revolutionary zeal and even spying, decided not to stand in the upcoming elections, although they have not given an explanation.

"We believe we should open the atmosphere in the country, give more freedom and practice detente in the international arena. The newcomers are dogmatic and don't believe in the wishes of the people," said Montajabnia, the cleric, who is a member of the National Trust Party and part of the reformist coalition. "This is a power struggle for the political direction of this country."

The struggle began almost four years ago with the surprise election to parliament of a majority representing the newcomers, and it continued with Ahmadinejad's presidential victory and the subsequent replacement of tens of thousands of experienced government managers.

Important positions taken over
The newcomers, some of whom had spent years in secondary positions in the Iranian system but had no prominent role in the revolution, have taken over important positions traditionally held by clerics. Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a former student of physics and deputy minister of education, became the first non-cleric to head parliament following the 2004 election.

The top negotiator on nuclear issues, cleric Hassan Rowhani, was replaced by Ali Larijani, a former head of Iranian state television. Larijani was replaced in October by Saeed Jalili, another non-cleric and a close ally of Ahmadinejad.

Among the newcomers are a few clerics, almost all of whom studied at a religious school in the holy city of Qom known for its strict interpretation of Islam.

Ahmadinejad's faction, which calls itself "principalist," consists of newcomers who say they want to act according to the principles of Islam and the revolution. Many members are former commanders in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, a force created after 1979 to protect the revolution. Members of another, more technocratic group have similar ideals and backgrounds but are at odds with the government on how to implement those principles. Larijani, who is seeking election to parliament, is emerging as the head of that faction.

"After a purge, the remaining faction divides. The split in the newcomers group will finally result in two main new groups in Iranian politics," said Iraj Jamshidi, political editor at Etemaad newspaper.

‘A lot of abuse of power’
The newcomers say the politicians who preceded them haven't realized the goals of the revolution. "There has been a lot of abuse of power," said Aboutaleb.

Jamshidi, whose newspaper is considered reformist, said the "clerics who used to hold high positions are being held responsible for the current problems in Iran."

Still, Rafsanjani holds one last trump card. In September he was chosen as chairman of the Assembly of Experts, an elected council of 86 clerics that selects, supervises and can dismiss the supreme leader.

"We don't know what's happening in the assembly," Serjooie said. "But we can be sure the new generation is now trying to get as many other institutions as possible under their influence, to cement their newly attained power."

Jamshidi said there is little likelihood that the cleric-politicians who gained power after the revolution will rebuild their standing. "They are not a part of the decision-making process anymore," he said. "I don't see any chance of a comeback."

The US missed a great opportunity to improve ties with the US and promote democracy in the country when Khatami was president. Sadly, the US, under Bill Clinton, rebuffed the regime and a few years later the window had closed and Ahmadinejad was elected. Like this article points out, a number of power players in the Iranian regime were disenchanted with the outcome of the 1979 Revolution and wanted to liberalize the country and better ties with West. And they were in a better position to do it than anyone else. Khatami, for instance, is a trained cleric and had clout among both the political and religious communities. It was therefore easier for him to push through reforms that might have been seen as anti-revolutionary had they been attempted by other politicians. But now these figures are being sidelined and populist radicals like Amadinejad are running the show. The window may soon not be only shut but nailed closed. I am not saying the US (or the West in general) is to blame for this. However, the US should get over its grudge over the Embassy hostage issue and seek to engage Iran in a more positive way. If there is a country in the Middle East that is democratically-minded and enjoys a rich civil society (other than Turkey and Israel) and history of political participation it is Iran. It is certainly an illiberal regime and has miles to go, but the underpinnings of democracy exist. Sadly, I think most policy makers and most American terribly misunderstand Iran on about every level.